As President Donald Trump prepares to visit the Gulf region on May 13, 2025, expectations are high, and so are the stakes. This visit represents a pivotal moment in the recalibration of U.S. engagement in the Middle East. With the region experiencing rapid geopolitical shifts—from renewed diplomacy with Iran, the emergence of post-Assad Syria, to the still-raging conflict in Gaza—Trump’s discussions with Gulf leaders are expected to touch upon not only immediate strategic concerns but also long-term visions for security, governance, and economic transformation. Unlike his first term, where maximalist policies on Iran and Syria dominated the agenda, this visit is widely seen as an opportunity for Trump to adopt a more flexible and transactional style of diplomacy shaped by evolving regional realities and pragmatic Gulf preferences.
Recalibrating the Iran Strategy: From Confrontation to Conditional Diplomacy
Foremost among these realities is the question of Iran. The visit is expected to align closely with the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, indicating a significant shift from Trump’s earlier rejection of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This time, both the U.S. and its Gulf allies appear to be favoring a diplomatic pathway that aims to place verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program while avoiding direct military confrontation. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested heavily in behind-the-scenes diplomacy with Tehran over the past two years, building de-escalation mechanisms and backchannel communication. Trump’s team is likely to explore how Gulf states can play a supporting role in these nuclear talks, possibly by offering regional incentives—economic cooperation or energy integration projects—conditioned on Iranian compliance. A successful alignment between U.S. and Gulf strategies on Iran could mitigate regional fears of an arms race and create a broader security framework that includes economic interdependence as a stabilizing force.
Crucially, Gulf leaders are expected to urge Trump to pair any nuclear agreement with strict verification mechanisms and provisions that limit Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional militancy. The Gulf states are no longer satisfied with arms-length diplomacy and demand a seat at the table in shaping post-agreement enforcement. Moreover, Trump may leverage this regional consensus to extract broader concessions from Tehran—not just on nuclear enrichment, but also on Iran’s involvement in proxy conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. If the visit results in a coherent trilateral approach among the U.S., Gulf countries, and Iran, it could pave the way for a more durable regional détente, though the path remains fraught with political landmines.
Post-Assad Syria and the Case for Conditional Reconstruction
Syria presents an equally consequential, if not more complex, agenda item. The ouster of Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, after more than a decade of authoritarian rule and civil war, has ushered in a new and fragile chapter. A transitional leadership now governs Damascus, and Gulf states see a unique opportunity to re-integrate Syria into the Arab fold, but only if the new leadership can be stabilized through reconstruction and reform. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is expected to push Trump to ease parts of the Caesar Act sanctions, which currently limit investment in Syria’s infrastructure and public sectors. Gulf leaders argue that targeted sanctions relief—focused on energy, water, and housing reconstruction—could empower the new leadership, reduce Iranian influence, and prevent Syria from becoming a failed state. For Trump, the challenge lies in balancing U.S. legal constraints and moral positions with the strategic logic of conditional economic re-engagement. If framed correctly, this could be a win-win: the U.S. retains leverage while opening space for Gulf-driven reconstruction and political stabilization.
Adding to the complexity is the emerging power vacuum that various actors—Russia, Turkey, Iran, and local militias—are eager to fill. Gulf leaders, particularly from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, are concerned that a hasty U.S. disengagement from Syria could lead to another protracted crisis. As a result, they are expected to propose a Gulf-led stabilization initiative, possibly under the umbrella of the Arab League, that would be contingent on U.S. political backing and legal frameworks allowing limited Western financial flows. Trump, always inclined to offload burdens to regional allies, might find such a proposal politically expedient. It would allow the U.S. to remain influential in Syria’s political transition without committing significant military or financial resources, aligning well with Trump’s longstanding “America First” doctrine.
Gaza’s Crossroads: From Humanitarian Crisis to Political Realignment
In Gaza, the war with Israel has stretched far beyond its initial objectives and has caused a humanitarian disaster of vast proportions. Trump’s meetings with Gulf leaders will likely emphasize immediate ceasefire mechanisms and long-term post-war governance solutions. With Hamas’s legitimacy severely eroded and civilian casualties mounting, the Gulf states—particularly Qatar and the UAE—are expected to propose a U.S.-backed reconstruction initiative that excludes Hamas and instead empowers a technocratic or internationally supervised local authority. Trump may seek to revive his earlier successes with the Abraham Accords by linking Gulf reconstruction efforts in Gaza to deeper Arab-Israeli normalization. Yet, this path remains fraught with political risks, especially if Israel resists significant concessions or if intra-Palestinian rivalries remain unresolved. Nevertheless, Trump and the Gulf can use their leverage—economic in the Gulf’s case, diplomatic in the U.S.’s—to create the foundations for a new Gaza governance model, supported by international donors and legitimized by regional stakeholders.
Furthermore, Gulf leaders are likely to argue that any reconstruction efforts must be paired with political guarantees to prevent the resurgence of militant groups. They may propose the deployment of Arab peacekeepers or international monitors in a post-conflict Gaza to ensure stability and confidence among stakeholders. Trump, known for favoring visible, high-impact deals, may seize on this opportunity to present himself as a peacemaker in a region long associated with intractable conflict. Such positioning would appeal both to Gulf capitals eager for U.S. leadership and to Trump’s domestic base that values foreign policy wins without extended military engagements.
Deepening Defense Ties and Reimagining Regional Security
Beyond geopolitical flashpoints, defense and security collaboration will be a central pillar of the visit. The Gulf states remain heavily reliant on American military support to deter regional threats, particularly those posed by Iran and non-state actors such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Trump is expected to reaffirm U.S. security guarantees while pressing for deeper interoperability through joint military exercises, real-time intelligence sharing, and integrated missile defense systems. Discussions may also revive earlier proposals for a Gulf-focused NATO-style security alliance, formalizing the informal defense partnerships that have existed for decades. Such an alliance would serve as both a deterrent to Iranian adventurism and a signal of enduring U.S. commitment amid global strategic distractions. However, Trump will likely tie any expanded security assurances to increased Gulf defense spending and procurement from U.S. manufacturers—a hallmark of his transactional approach to alliances.
In parallel with defense collaboration, Saudi Arabia is expected to push for a new civilian nuclear energy agreement with the United States, aimed at diversifying its energy mix and freeing up more oil and gas for export. Inspired by the U.S.-UAE nuclear deal, Riyadh seeks a similar partnership that would enable the peaceful development of nuclear power under international safeguards. The Kingdom argues that its domestic consumption of fossil fuels for electricity is economically inefficient and environmentally unsustainable, and a U.S.-backed civilian nuclear program could alleviate this strain while aligning with non-proliferation norms. Trump may view such a deal as an opportunity to create jobs at home through U.S. nuclear technology exports, while also reinforcing strategic energy cooperation with a key Gulf ally. However, negotiations will likely hinge on issues such as uranium enrichment rights and oversight mechanisms—topics that require delicate diplomacy to avoid regional proliferation concerns.
The Tech Frontier: AI, Cybersecurity, and a New U.S.-Gulf Digital Alliance
Additionally, there is growing interest in integrating emerging technologies into Gulf defense postures. Autonomous systems, AI-assisted surveillance, and cybersecurity protocols are fast becoming core elements of regional military strategies. Trump is expected to pitch a suite of U.S. defense technologies tailored to Gulf needs, ranging from drone swarms and unmanned naval systems to AI-powered threat detection platforms. This military-tech fusion represents the next frontier in U.S.-Gulf security cooperation, allowing for increased local autonomy while keeping the U.S. as the preferred technology partner over rivals such as China or Russia.
Equally important but less discussed is the technology agenda—particularly collaboration on artificial intelligence (AI). Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have positioned themselves as regional AI hubs, investing billions in smart infrastructure, digital governance, and autonomous defense systems. Trump’s visit is expected to include proposals for bilateral AI research partnerships, the establishment of U.S.-affiliated innovation hubs in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and greater collaboration in cybersecurity and digital standards. These initiatives would not only support the Gulf’s long-term economic diversification goals under Vision 2030 and similar frameworks but also serve as a counterweight to Chinese digital influence. With Washington increasingly wary of Beijing’s inroads into Gulf technology infrastructure, Trump may offer attractive alternatives in 5G, cloud services, and data sovereignty protocols. For the Gulf, aligning with the U.S. on tech innovation is as much about strategic trust as it is about technological advancement.
Moreover, the AI agenda offers mutual benefits in workforce development and innovation ecosystems. Gulf countries are eager to nurture domestic talent through partnerships with leading American universities and tech firms, and Trump may propose academic-industrial consortia that embed U.S. expertise within Gulf innovation sectors. From predictive policing tools to AI-powered climate resilience systems, the scope for collaboration is vast and deeply strategic. This tech partnership also allows Trump to project American leadership in an area where China has been gaining ground. If these proposals materialize, they could form the foundation of a long-term digital alliance that rivals traditional defense treaties in importance and impact.
Moving Forward: A Strategic Reset in the Making
Trump’s May 2025 Gulf visit is more than a symbolic return to a region where he once claimed foreign policy success. It is a litmus test for the future of U.S.-Gulf relations in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. Whether the agenda is Iran’s nuclear program, Syria’s reconstruction, Gaza’s recovery, or the AI revolution, this visit could shape the contours of a new Middle Eastern order—one that blends hard security with soft power, transactional pragmatism with regional vision. The question is whether Trump, now a seasoned political actor with a legacy to protect, can deliver on this complex and high-stakes reset. His success will depend not only on negotiating prowess but also on his ability to navigate a multilayered diplomatic terrain where old alliances must be renewed and new ones carefully calibrated for a changing world.