From Arabia to Asia: Does a Policy Shift Make Sense?

Posted on February 18, 2014 by John Duke Anthony

President Obama’s Coming Visit to Saudi Arabia in Perspective

That the foreign policies of various governments often appear to be contradictory is because they frequently are. Certainly of late, this seems to characterize aspects of the Obama administration’s relations with the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

President Barack Obama walks with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and members of the Saudi Arabian delegation during the King’s visit to the White House on June 29, 2010. Photo: White House.

This ambiguity and the confusion and uncertainty that accompany it are among the things that President Barack Obama will need to dispel and clarify in the course of his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia. As this essay seeks to demonstrate, what he will have to contend with in terms of background, context, and perspective will not be easy of resolution, amelioration, or even abatement.

Despite the many largely unreported positives there are numerous negatives that need to be addressed lest a situation that is seen by many within this globally vital region as increasingly tendentious and quarrelsome become the more so, for no good reason.

On one hand, Washington has strengthened and extended its overall position and influence in the GCC region. For example, the multi-year, multifaceted U.S.-Saudi Arabia Strategic Dialogue has been elevated for the past three years to a GCC-U.S. Strategic Dialogue, and there have been strategic, reassurance-themed visits to multiple GCC countries by U.S. Secretaries of Defense and State Chuck Hagel and John Kerry.

Additionally, there have been continuing sales to GCC countries of tens of billions of dollars of U.S.-manufactured defense and security structures, systems, technology, and arms. ((“$10.8B U.S. Arms Sale Reassures Gulf Allies at Touchy Time,” United Press International. October 18, 2013. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2013/10/18/108B-US-arms-sale-reassures-gulf-allies-at-touchy-time/UPI-92581382116294/.)) Americans have also signed long-term contracts with these countries for the provision of munitions, maintenance, repairs, spare parts, and equipment sustainability, all of which have translated into the generation and extended life span of millions of American jobs.

Yet, simultaneously, signals from Washington and the mainstream U.S. media indicate that the Obama administration is recalibrating the strategic focus of its international priorities. Great emphasis, for example, is being placed on the Asia-Pacific regions.

Affecting the need to recalibrate are major budget reductions and their impact on strategic concepts, forces, and operational dynamics. At issue and under examination, according to the Secretary of Defense in advance of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) are America’s assumptions, ambitions, and abilities. ((Richard L. Kugler and Linton Wells II, Strategic Shift: Appraising Recent Changes in U.S. Defense Plans and Policies. Washington, D.C: Center for Technology and National Security Policy, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, 2013. p. vii.)) Understandably, the GCC region’s reaction to these trends and indications has been mixed.

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Placing the Recent Tension in Saudi Arabian-U.S. Relations in Context: Where Do We Go From Here?

Posted on November 15, 2013 by NCUSAR

Below is a remarks as delivered transcript from a public affairs briefing held November 13, 2013, in Washington, DC, sponsored by the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee, and Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP.

Featured Specialists:

Ambassador (Ret.) Ford Fraker – Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (April 2007 – April 2009); and Senior Advisor, Trinity Group Limited.

Ambassador (Ret.) James Smith – Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (September 2009 – September 2013); and Senior Counselor, The Cohen Group.

Moderator:

Dr. John Duke Anthony – Founding President and CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations.

[Remarks as delivered]

[Amb. Ford Fraker] Well, Dr. Anthony as usual has done an excellent job sort of laying the ground work, and I think one of the advantages of an audience like this is that Ambassador Smith and I get to talk to people who know a lot about what we’re talking about, and that facilitates the discussion. What we don’t – certainly what I don’t do well at is when I have to stand up in front of a group and put a map of Europe on the wall and then go from Europe down to Saudi Arabia, so it’s always nice to speak to an informed audience.

Ambassador (Ret.) Ford M. Fraker at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations’ 2013 Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference. Photo: NCUSAR.

So what I want to do is to spend some time talking about the relationship and some of the key elements in the relationship that are relevant today for what’s going on so that we can get into the question and answer portion of this rapidly. I think it’s at that point that everybody gets fully engaged and we don’t have to stand up here droning on about various issues that may or may not be important to you. It’s always better to turn it over to the audience and find out what’s on their minds.

So a brief word about the relationship. When I arrived as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia in 2007, up to that point I’d been a banker in the Middle East for almost 35 years. So Saudi Arabia was a country I knew well. It allowed me to transition into the position relatively easily from a number of standpoints. But one of the things that surprised me when I came was I had no real understanding of the breadth and depth of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S.

Obviously the high points – energy for security – all the basic issues that drive the relationship, yes I knew about them. But the number of programs that exist encompassing Departments of Commerce, Energy, Education – a whole raft of programs that extend throughout the relationship, not just broadly, but deeply as I said, I think has a lot to do with why this relationship is as strong and as fundamentally sound as it is.

Some of you have heard me refer to the relationship as a marriage. All good marriages are based on sound fundamentals, strategic interests, shared values. I think that’s very much the case in Saudi Arabia. And in every strong marriage, good marriage, there are the ups and downs, but as long as those fundamentals are in place, and as I said as long as you have this depth and breadth of relationships operating then the relationship takes over.

I’m convinced one of the reasons the relationship did not break immediately after 9/11 was because of this, because of the number of programs that were in place, because of the day-to-day interaction was embedded. So from that standpoint I don’t worry about this relationship breaking. For sure, as I said, there will be ups and downs, and we’re in a particularly difficult period right now and there are a number of factors for that, and I wanted to mention two.

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Saudi Arabia-U.S. Relations Reconsidered

Posted on October 31, 2013 by John Duke Anthony

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On October 18, 2013, Saudi Arabia turned down a hard-won invitation to join the United Nations Security Council. Riyadh’s rejection of the much-coveted seat on the world’s highest deliberative body was described by many Americans in highly unflattering terms.

HRH Prince Saud Al Faisal, the world’s longest serving foreign minister (since 1975). Photo: UN.

The decision comes in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s long-serving Minister of Foreign Affairs, HRH Prince Saud Al Faisal, opting to forgo deliverance of what for decades had been his annual address to the United Nations General Assembly.

Following the announcement, the Kingdom’s Chief of General Intelligence and Secretary-General of the National Security Council, HRH Prince Bandar bin Sultan, expressed his heightened concern about the state of the Saudi Arabian-U.S. relationship.

At the 2013 Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference days after the kingdom declined membership on the Security Council, HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal, a prominent member of the kingdom’s monarchy, quoted numerous derogatory comments that U.S. opinion writers have used to describe the country’s actions and the reasons given for its decisions in this regard.

Some Perspectives

More seasoned commentators provided background and context for what occurred.

Some cited the kingdom’s profound disappointment at the Council’s recent inability, lain at the veto-wielding feet of mainly China and Russia, to bring an end to the continuing bloodshed in Syria.

Others agreed but added Saudi Arabia’s astonishment and anger at the way the Obama administration was so quick to turn its back on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Additional commentators noted the country’s long-held concerns over the spread of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, including both Iran’s developing nuclear program and Israel’s stockpile of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

HRH Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia’s Chief of General Intelligence and Secretary-General of the National Security Council, with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Russian Federation.

Further commentators remarked on Saudi Arabia’s frustration over the perceived naiveté of the United States in moving to open a dialogue with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani despite Iranian meddling in the affairs of GCC countries, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen – this, after the gift of Iraq to Iran as a direct result of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq against the advice of Riyadh and the capitals of most of the other GCC states, plus the envisioned possibility that the United States might somehow eventually reach one or more agreements with Tehran at the kingdom’s and its fellow GCC members’ expense.

Still others cited Riyadh’s ongoing deep disenchantment with the continuing tragic consequences of the Security Council’s larger, more pervasive, and continuing failure, lain primarily at the veto-wielding feet of the United States, to settle the much older conflict between Arabs and Israelis.

Given the number, nature, and magnitude of the Security Council’s noted failures and shortcomings, what Riyadh did — the negative comments of critics notwithstanding — was hardly petulant.

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Keynote Address by HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal at the 2013 Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference

Posted on October 28, 2013 by NCUSAR

HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal delivered a keynote address at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations’ 22nd Annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference. He was introduced by Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO of the National Council. The conference, on the theme “Navigating Arab-U.S. Relations: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities,” was held October 22-23, 2013, at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington, DC.

Speaker:
HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal – Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; former Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United Kingdom and to the United States of America; former Director General, General Intelligence Directorate, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

For more information visit the National Council’s Annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference homepage.

“The Impact of Regional Political Developments on the Evolution of Transnational Terrorism in Saudi Arabia” by Dr. Saad Alsubaie

Posted on June 20, 2013 by NCUSAR

National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations Distinguished International Security Studies Fellow Dr. Saad Alsubaie’s doctoral dissertation on “The impact of regional political developments on the evolution of transnational terrorism in Saudi Arabia” is available online through Kansas State University’s Research Exchange (K-REx). The abstract as well as a link to access the full dissertation is available below.

ABSTACT:

Since the late 1970s Saudi Arabia has experienced transnational terrorism in sporadic waves whose character has evolved over time. While most of the literature on these waves of terrorism focuses on religious extremism this dissertation argues that terrorism in Saudi Arabia, although framed in religious terms, is not the result of religious factors alone, but more importantly a function of external variables. Taking the role of religious extremism into consideration, this dissertation underlines the importance of external factors on the mobilization of transnational terrorist groups throughout the Islamic world and particularly in Saudi Arabia. It argues that religious extremist terrorism cannot be examined in isolation from the context of the developments that ignite it and revolutionize its doctrine. This dissertation examines three key regional political developments – the Iranian revolution, the 1990 Gulf war, and the 2003 Iraq war – together with terrorist violence in their aftermath to show how the significant political events transformed extremist worldviews from passive to violent to organized terrorism. Though the character of these three political events and the terrorist acts that they unleashed differ widely in context, scope, and character, there are common threads among all three that illuminate how different dynamics contribute to the evolution of transnational terrorist mobilization. The dissertation identifies how the development of a politico-religious ideology, shaped and revolutionized by the presence of political crises, became a driving force behind much of the terrorism following these major political events. By exploring the interplay of popular perceptions, political entrepreneurs, and state responses, this dissertation seeks to better understand the complex dynamics involved in the evolution of transnational terrorism in Saudi Arabia.

Access “The impact of regional political developments on the evolution of transnational terrorism in Saudi Arabia” in Kansas State University’s Research Exchange (K-REx)

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NCUSAR Model Arab League Study Visit to Saudi Arabia, Winter 2013

Posted on February 12, 2013 by NCUSAR

The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, in partnership with the Saudi Arabian Cultural Mission and Saudi Arabian Ministry of Higher Education, escorted a delegation of Model Arab League students on a cultural immersion study visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, December 27, 2012-January 7, 2013. During the course of the visit, the students met Saudi Arabian educators, business representatives, civil society leaders, and American diplomats in addition to visiting numerous sites of cultural and historical interest. The study visit provided the young American leaders a hands-on experience in the Arab world that few others their age have had.

Model Arab League Study Visit to Saudi Arabia, January 2013

GCC Information for Reference

Posted on December 20, 2012 by NCUSAR

As the 33rd Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial and Heads of State Summit approaches on December 24-25, 2012 in Manama, Bahrain, the Arabia, the Gulf, and the GCC Blog presents for reference a listing of GCC-related posts from the past several months.

The US‐GCC Relationship

Posted on December 18, 2012 by John Duke Anthony

In the past half century, no Arab sub-regional inter-state organization has been as successful as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established in May 1981. Next week, Bahrain will host the 33rd GCC Ministerial and Heads of State Summit in Manama (December 24-25, 2012). In an effort to explore how the GCC and its six member-countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) achieved what they have accomplished, the Arabia, the Gulf, and the GCC Blog presents a 2006 article from Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President and CEO of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and the only American to have been invited to each of the GCC’s Ministerial and Heads of State Summits since the GCC’s inception, which examines some of the dynamics surrounding the GCC’s formation and strategic position.

Click to access 2006.12.15-JDA-US-GCC%20Relations.pdf

FURTHER READING: