Category Archives: Saudi Arabia

Yemen in Chaos: Analysis, Prognosis, and Prospects

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April 2, 2015 NCUSAR Public Affairs Briefing on YemenOn April 2, 2015, the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations hosted a public affairs briefing on “Yemen in Chaos: Analysis, Prognosis, and Prospects” in the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, DC.

Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO of the National Council, served as moderator and H.E. Adel A. Al-Jubeir, Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States, delivered featured remarks. Additional featured specialists included: Mr. Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle East Affairs for the Congressional Research Service and Author of the CRS Report, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations;” Ms. Sama’a Al-Hamdani, Analyst and Writer for Yemeniaty and former Assistant Political Officer for the Embassy of the Republic of Yemen in Washington, DC; Professor David Des Roches, Senior Military Fellow at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (National Defense University) and Council Malone Fellow in Arab and Islamic Studies (Syria); and Mr. Abbas Almosawa, Yemeni Journalist and Analyst, and former Media and Information Advisor for the Embassy of the Republic of Yemen in Abu Dhabi and Beirut.

The program was broadcast live on C-Span and can be viewed in its entirety on the C-Span website.

Saudi Arabia Now Largest Defense Importer & Largest Market for the United States

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According to IHS’ annual Global Defence Trade Report, in 2014 Saudi Arabia became the largest worldwide importer of defense equipment as well as the largest defense market for the United States. Saudi Arabia replaced India as the largest defense importer in 2014 after being the second largest defense importer in 2013. Saudi Arabia’s defense imports increased by 54% from 2013 to 2014.

According to the same report, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the world’s fourth largest defense importer in 2014 and third largest in 2013. Combined, Saudi Arabia and the UAE imported $8.6 billion in defense systems in 2014, which is more than the imports of all of Western Europe combined.

World’s Largest Defense Importers, 2014 & 2013

Top Worldwide Defense Importers, 2013 and 2014

The U.S. was the largest beneficiary of the increases in the Middle Eastern market, with defense systems exports to the region growing from $6 billion in 2013 to $8.4 billion in 2014. Other leading defense exporters to the Middle East in 2014 were the United Kingdom ($1.9 billion), Russian Federation ($1.5 billion), France, ($1.3 billion), and Germany ($1 billion).

According to data on international arms transfers published by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on March 16, 2015, U.S. exports of major weapons increased by 23% between 2005-2009 and 2010-2014, and account for approximately a third of international arms exports. The Middle East was the recipient of 32% of U.S. weapons exports and the U.S. accounted for 47% of total arms supplies to the Middle East from 2010-2014.

According to SIPRI, Saudi Arabia increased the volume of its arms imports by 417% between 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. Imports of arms to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – accounted for 54% of imports to the Middle East from 2010-2014.

Yemen’s Houthi Takeover: Domestic and Regional Repercussions

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Sanaa, Yemen, is considered by many historians to be one of the oldest, continuously-inhabited cities in the world.

Sanaa, Yemen, is considered by many historians to be one of the oldest continuously-inhabited cities in the world. Photo: Dr. John Duke Anthony.

Two weeks ago, the Zaidi Shiite-Houthi march to control the Yemeni state triumphantly arrived at its destination in Sanaa, and forced the resignation of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the country’s two-month old government headed by Prime Minister Khaled Bahhah. The withdrawal of the President and Premier was the natural end of an aborted political process that was derailed by a gradual Houthi military advance that brought their militia, Ansar Allah, to the streets of the capital. With the Houthis welcoming both resignations and proposing to form a pliant provisional Presidential Council, the country seems to be heading towards more domestic instability and disunity that will generate regional uncertainties. More importantly, perhaps, the pro-Iranian Houthi triumph in Sanaa is nothing short of a coup d’etat that may, in the end, deliver yet another Arab capital to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

An Unpredictable Yemeni Domestic Scene

In justifying their military putsch, the Houthis accused President Hadi of subverting an all-party agreement at a National Dialogue Conference in 2014 – part of a November 2011 initiative proposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council in answer to widespread pro-reform protests. Participants in the dialogue had agreed to write a new constitution, the draft of which still awaits ratification by popular referendum. The new charter creates a federated Yemeni state composed of six regions to replace the current 22 administrative divisions.

The pro-Iranian Houthi triumph in Sanaa is nothing short of a coup d’etat that may, in the end, deliver yet another Arab capital to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Desiring autonomy and eventual independence, the Houthis, who currently comprise about 30 percent of the population, prefer a condominium between a northern and a southern region that many believe would be demarcated along the pre-1990 division of the northern Republic of Yemen and the defunct southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. Such a division would presumably give the Houthis control over the north where their numbers would not be excessively diluted by Sunnis. With the desired division, they could either simply enjoy long-term self-rule or await propitious circumstances to declare independence in a northern rump state that would be a re-incarnation of the old Imamate that died over half a century ago. As for the southern secessionists, whose leader Ali Salem al-Beidh resides in Beirut as a guest in Hezbollah’s southern suburbs, the dissolution of the current union would help them realize a long-held desire to re-establish a state they believe would free them of the oppression of northern politicians.

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Obama’s Latest Visit to Riyadh in Context

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President Barack Obama’s visit to Riyadh in conjunction with the post-funeral ceremonies for King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz could not have come at a time when the atmosphere was more receptive or the political moment more propitious.

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Sa'ud and President Barack Obama during the president's January 27, 2015, visit to Saudi Arabia.

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Sa’ud and President Barack Obama during the president’s January 27, 2015, visit to Saudi Arabia. Photo: Saudi Press Agency.

The visit can be viewed within a twofold context. The first was largely positive. The second was negative and predictably given greater press coverage for reasons explained herein. In a different world, the latter would not have been discussed publicly given the circumstances surrounding the president’s visit to the kingdom.

In an interview only hours before he arrived to offer his condolences, President Obama violated ordinary diplomatic protocol by making critical comments about Saudi Arabia. In so doing, he made an unwelcomed impression on his hosts during a period of transition and mourning.

The president’s remarks in the interview ought not to be surprising. The reasons can be attributed to domestic pressures all American presidents are subjected to by the realities of U.S. political and electoral campaign finance dynamics, the media, and the powerful influence of special interest groups.

Two factors behind all three pressures as Americans approach new presidential elections have long been the liberal international interventionist wing of the Democratic Party and the traditional interests of various pro-Israeli and other American partisans opposed to the Saudi Arabian-American special relationship.

In this there is nothing new under the sun. U.S. and Saudi Arabian leaders readily acknowledge that American domestic political dynamics are at once a fact and a facet of the U.S.-Saudi Arabian relationship. Still, for Saudi Arabia’s leaders, who are managing a transfer of responsibilities upon the death of a leader who was Saudi Arabia’s de facto head of state for several decades, the remarks were poorly timed and poorly considered.

Positives from President Obama’s Visit

By making the visit, which was logistically and operationally convenient as he was already in India, President Obama avoided having portions of the international media criticize him for not being present at a major international gathering. To his credit, he joined many other sincere friends, allies, and strategic partners of Saudi Arabia to pay respect upon the passing of King Abdullah, who was widely respected and admired.

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King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Sa’ud: In Memoriam

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King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman Al Sa’ud passed away last week. Rahimahu Allah.

Aged ninety, the monarch had been in less than good health for some time. He is followed in accordance with a succession that was as consensually agreed to and as smoothly executed as any among ruling families in modern times. The position and role as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and head of state passed to the Crown Prince and Deputy Prime Minister, and the late king’s half-brother, HRH Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, who had additionally served as the country’s Minister of Defense.

The new Crown Prince, also in accordance with a previously stipulated and agreed line of succession, is HRH Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz. Prince Muqrin is the youngest son of King Abdulaziz, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia. He received his higher education in Great Britain and is an accomplished pilot as well as a former Minister of Intelligence. He is a half-brother of the late king and also of the new king.

One of King Salman’s most remarkable and groundbreaking initial acts was unprecedented: he introduced a member of the younger generation of princes to an official position in the direct line of succession to the future position of king. The new Deputy Crown Prince and Second Deputy Prime Minister is HRH Prince Mohammad bin Nayef, who is also the Minister of Interior. Prince Mohammad bin Nayef succeeded his father in that role when the latter passed away three years ago.

The following tribute is by National Council Founding President and CEO Dr. John Duke Anthony. Dr. Anthony met with and had the opportunity to observe the late king at close hand numerous times over the past half century. Included were more than thirty occasions when Abdullah either led or was a member of the Saudi Arabian delegation to the annual GCC Ministerial and Heads of State Summits that Dr. Anthony attended.

The following essay is the first of several that will be appearing from Dr. Anthony on various aspects of the impact of King Abdullah’s vision and leadership.

 

ABDULLAH BIN ABDULAZIZ BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL SA’UD: IN MEMORIAM

By Dr. John Duke Anthony

January 27, 2015

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Fi Thimat Allah.

King Abdullah was more than revered. He was widely respected. Above all, he long enjoyed and merited the trust, confidence, and loyalty of his people. Prominent public opinion surveys and poll after poll revealed the high regard in which his fellow citizens held him.

HRH Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Sa'ud, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and King of Saudi Arabia. Seated behind him is HRH Saud bin Faisal Al Sa'ud, the kingdom's long-serving Minister of Foreign Affairs.

HRH Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Sa’ud, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and King of Saudi Arabia. Seated behind him is HRH Saud bin Faisal Al Sa’ud, the kingdom’s long-serving Minister of Foreign Affairs. Photo by Dr. John Duke Anthony.

King Abdullah held the powerful positions of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, Commander of the Faithful, head of state, and Shaykh of Shaykhs. Like few other leaders in the Arab countries, the Middle East, and the Islamic world, he was simultaneously one of the most beloved leaders of his time and in the region beyond Saudi Arabia’s borders.

Much of the reason had to do with the fact that, despite the trappings associated with his being a monarch, he was down to earth, modest, and approachable – forever relatable to Bedouins, city dwellers, and high-level dignitaries alike.

His tastes, like the tribal and once-Bedouin soldiers of the Saudi Arabian National Guard that he led the longest – from 1962 until he became ruler in 2005 – were simple. His manner was direct, his style unpretentious.

Not many heads of state have been known, as he was, for their association with bocce ball, an Italian game similar to bowling. In such leisure time as he had, Abdullah loved to play the game – not on grass or asphalt, as its aficionados are wont to do, but on the sand in the desert with his friends and others with whom he felt comfortable.

King Abdullah’s passing marks a serious event in the history of the kingdom that, thanks to him, became a pivotal actor in international affairs to a greater and more diverse extent than any would have imagined when he became king. As ruler, reformer, and foreign policy decision-maker, the late king provided the needed steady hand and firm direction to lead the kingdom through turbulent times. His domestic, regional, and international achievements during a period of great tensions and uncertainties will accord him a place among Saudi Arabia’s greatest leaders.

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2014-15 Model Arab League Study Visit to Saudi Arabia Pictures

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The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations led a delegation of ten students and five university faculty members, all selected from the Council’s Model Arab League program, on a study visit to Saudi Arabia from December 28, 2014 – January 7, 2015. The goal of the visit was to provide an empirical educational introduction to the kingdom’s culture and society for a select group of American students and faculty members who have performed exceptionally well in the Model Arab League program. During the course of their visit, the delegation met Saudi Arabian educators, business representatives, civil society leaders, and American diplomats in addition to visiting numerous sites of cultural, developmental, and historical interest.

Some pictures from the study visit are available below.

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Gulf Research Center Publishes Reports on Saudi Arabia Business Sectors

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Gulf Research Center

The Jeddah, Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center has consistently been ranked among the Top Think Tanks in the Middle East and North Africa by the University of Pennsylvania.

The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations is pleased to announce the availability of six important Gulf Research Center (GRC) reports on key business sectors in Saudi Arabia. The reports study the kingdom’s economic growth with a view to exploring the country’s future development trajectory. Each report outlines a different sector’s current environment and principal indicators. Also analyzed are the sectors’ challenges and regulatory issues together with emerging themes likely to impact future development potential and investment opportunities.

Below is a link to each of the six reports, which are available to purchase from the GRC. Additional publications from the GRC, many of which are free to download, can be found at: http://grc.net/index.php?sec=Publications.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Water Sector Report

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Water Sector Report

Abstract: Saudi Arabia lies in the arid, semi-arid region of the Arabian Peninsula and is the largest country in the world without rivers. Despite unfavorable climatic conditions and scarcity of natural water resources, it has succeeded in meeting most of the water requirements of its rapidly growing population so far. Water consumption in the Kingdom increased at a CAGR of 2.6% from 1970 and reached 17,903 million cubic meters (mcm) in 2010 or about 653 m3 per capita, about 35% higher than the global average. The rise in water consumption was led by a nearly five time increase in population during the same period (1970–2010), higher urbanization levels, which increased from about 50% to over 80%, and increased industrialization.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Real Estate Sector Report

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Real Estate Sector Report

Abstract: Real estate is one of the key non-oil sectors of the economy of Saudi Arabia and will play an important role in the success of the economic diversification planned by the Kingdom. The real estate sector will continue to grow in the future led by growing population, rising personal incomes, increasing participation of multinational companies in the country, government initiatives, and increased private participation.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Industry Sector Report

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Industry Sector Report

Abstract: In the past few years, most of the industrial growth in Saudi Arabia has been led by the construction and cement, metals and mining, and petrochemicals and refineries sub sectors, among others. The government’s plan for economic diversification, including investments in large infrastructure projects such as the six economic cities, is one of the key drivers of growth in the industry sector. Saudi Arabia has a large local population base which is growing at over 2% per annum, which will also drive the demand for better infrastructure including housing.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Healthcare Sector Report

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Healthcare Sector Report

Abstract: Saudi Arabia’s healthcare sector has come a long way since the establishment of the Ministry of Health (MoH) in the 1950s. The years that followed saw Saudi Arabia emerging as a key player in the global economy, following the success of its oil industry, which enabled investments to build a local healthcare system. Five-year plans, better healthcare infrastructure, and recruitment of expats as doctors and nurses led to a multifold increase in the quality of services provided by the healthcare sector.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Energy Sector Report

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Energy Sector Report

Abstract: The oil and gas industry is the backbone of the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia contributing about 75% to budget revenues, 45% to GDP, and 90% to exports. Saudi Arabia has the second largest oil reserves, largest oil production, and the fifth largest natural gas reserves in the world. Over 72% of the oil produced in the Kingdom is exported. Indeed, the economy of Saudi Arabia is dependent on these non-renewable sources of energy, with a high correlation between Saudi Arabia’s GDP and oil prices.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Foreign Trade and FDI Report

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Foreign Trade and FDI Report

Abstract: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ranked 22nd in the ‘Ease of Doing Business Rankings’ in 2013. This is a significant improvement compared to its ranks (above 100) a few years ago. This change has been led by increasing government initiatives, which are enabling a friendly investment environment that encourages participation from foreign and local investors. Indeed, Saudi Arabia received the highest FDI inflows in the GCC region in 2012.

The ISIS Challenge and HRH Prince Khaled bin Bandar’s Visit to Washington: The Issues, The Implications

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Prince Khaled bin Bandar greets President Barack Obama upon his arrival in Riyadh in March 2014.

Prince Khaled bin Bandar greets President Barack Obama upon his arrival in Riyadh in March 2014. Photo: Saudi Press Agency.

Strategic Saudi Arabian-U.S. cooperation continues. Another prominent Saudi Arabian leader – Chief of Saudi Arabia’s General Intelligence Presidency HRH Prince Khaled bin Bandar bin Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud – visits Washington, DC this week. Coming after recent visits by Saudi Arabian Minister of the Interior, HRH Prince Mohammad bin Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz, and Minister of the Saudi Arabian National Guard, HRH Prince Mit`eb bin Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz, Prince Khaled’s visit will most likely continue discussions on joint efforts to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Four months after the formation of the U.S.-led international coalition to degrade and defeat ISIS, Prince Khaled will review past accomplishments, study lessons learned, and coordinate future steps to combat what has become a serious threat to peace and security in the Arab East.

Ameliorating the ISIS Challenge

Since its June 2014 conquest of northern Iraq with a then-ragtag army, ISIS has become the foremost security and strategic challenge to the nation-state order in the Levant and Arabian Gulf. A now-much-better-equipped and -armed military force occupying large swaths of Syria and Iraq, it possesses a contiguous base of operations that threatens all adjacent countries. The bearer of a messianic vision to re-establish what it considers a virtuous state – a “Caliphate” – that harkens back to the first few decades of the pax Islamica in the Arabian Peninsula more than fourteen centuries ago, ISIS and its close and distant adherents alike sadly represent a hope, albeit false, to disenfranchised, alienated, or simply misguided Sunni Muslims everywhere.

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